Whether you like or loathe Jeremy Corbyn, idolise or distrust the guy, one thing is becoming increasingly sure. Between his faction of the Labour Party and the coalition loving Lib Dem cabal of Nick Clegg that all but wiped out any chance of a UK wide third party ever existing again, the United Kingdom with the current borders will become a one party state for a generation and more.
Why do i say this? Well, basic maths is one thing. Firstly, let’s put pay to the Lib Dem myth that they will be anything but remain a fringe outfit. They lost the PR referendum (remember that one?), then lost their core voters of students and the parents of students by signing up for a policy that even the Tories hadn’t asked them to support and now have a leader that is as bland as Stork margarine and polices to match.
All this means that areas that were once at two horse race between Tories and Lib Dems – such as South West England and south west London – are now one horse races. This then allows resources and policy messaging to be aimed squarely at the traditional battleground constituencies stretching from the Humber to the Bristol Channel.
The Greens will be consigned to protest vote politics whilst the millions of UKIP supporters will now slope back to their Tory roots now that the job of creating their Little England is now done.
This then leaves Labour as the only party who could challenge the Tories – and given that the battle to be the next Prime Minister is now between two bankers – it is an election in October or in 2020 that a fully functioning opposition once-upon-a-time might have thought they could win.
The Labour Party – aside from being riddled with in fighting – is now a party of the hard old school left and of the well heeled London metropolis. Where Tony Blair understood how to keep the northern working class on his side by appointing the ex-cabin steward, former boxer and all round piece of northern grit – John Prescott – to be his Deputy Prime Minister, the subsequent Labour leaders have failed to follow suit.
Gordon Brown was a Scot, not a northerner and no one ever thought he understood the needs of millions of people. Sure Ed and David Miliband had constituencies up north, but their home has always been Islington. The Corbyn sect is even more London based with his Shadow Chancellor and Health Secretary and Foreign Secretary all emanating from within the M25. It comes therefore as no surprise that even if Mr Corbyn had been chomping at the bit to promote the EU remain campaign, northern England and Wales would have switched off.
Without Scotland – which will also be as one part state as North Korea, South Africa and Myanmar have become – and without an ability to either understand the issues facing many of those who used to vote for Labour, then the Conservatives will continue to win – and win big. And, more frighteningly, even Cameron understood the danger this could leave the country in when, at PMQs, he chided Corbyn:
“It might be in my party’s interest for him to sit there, it’s not in the national interest and I would say, for heaven’s sake man, go.”
Once either May or this Leadsome woman, whoever she may be, becomes Prime Minister there has to be a functioning opposition to help temper some of the more extreme, irrational and ill considered decisions that are almost certain to come Britain’s way in the coming months. But with Corbyn either battling his own party, stuffing his Cabinet full of loyal but dim acolytes or harking back to battles that mattered 10-30 years ago that no modern electorate gives two shits about, then we will be stuck with a single party running the country for a very, very, very long time. And whether you love or loathe Tories, that can never be a good thing.